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Global value chains and the design of trade agreements Rev. Int. Organ. (IF 4.5) Pub Date : 2025-02-11 Arianna Bondi, Leonardo Baccini, Matteo Fiorini, Bernard Hoekman, Carlo Altomonte, Italo Colantone
We explore the role of global value chains (GVCs) in the design of preferential trade agreements (PTAs). We propose a theory that focuses on firms involved in GVC activities to identify the main actors pushing for deep trade integration. To address the critical issue of endogeneity of GVC trade flows for trade policy, our identification strategy exploits a transportation shock: the sharp increase in
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Citizen Action and Elite Responses: Opposition Mass Movements and Regime Change From Within, 1900–2019 Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 2.2) Pub Date : 2025-02-10 Vilde Lunnan Djuve, Carl Henrik Knutsen
The mobilization of opposition mass movements may spur regime change via different processes, including popular revolutions or coups. We zoom in on one salient channel through which mass mobilization may induce regime change, namely via provoking incumbent responses. Synthesizing different arguments, we detail how incumbent elites sometimes preemptively alter the regime to diffuse threats by incumbent-guided
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Practices of (De)Legitimation in World Politics International Studies Review (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2025-02-07 Nora Stappert, Frank Gadinger, Stanislav Budnitsky, Matthias Ecker-Ehrhardt, Anna Geis, David Shim, Laurenz Krumbacher, Siddharth Tripathi
This forum proposes a practice-oriented approach to (de)legitimation processes in world politics. Drawing on international practice theory and visual IR, among other fields, our approach offers an important extension of existing literature on (de)legitimation that mostly concentrates on discursive (de)legitimation. Instead, this forum focuses on a broader variety of practices of (de)legitimation, such
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The textual dynamics of international policymaking: A new corpus of UN resolutions, 1946–2018 Journal of Peace Research (IF 3.4) Pub Date : 2025-02-05 Sabrina B Arias
I introduce a new dataset of all United Nations Security Council and United Nations General Assembly resolutions passed from 1946–2018, as well as machine-learning-based measures of their references to other resolutions, textual alignment, and topics. I suggest applications of this data for a variety of questions in international relations from the development of international law to the influence
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The fiscal reckoning of war: Contemporary armed conflict and progressive income taxation Journal of Peace Research (IF 3.4) Pub Date : 2025-02-05 Jakob Frizell
Armed conflicts expose states to extraordinary fiscal stress and leave poverty and inequality in their wake. Yet, the fiscal policy responses in contemporary conflict-affected states appear feeble, in striking contrast to historical antecedents, having led to radical and distinctly progressive tax reforms. Whereas extant literature cautions against generalising Western wartime experiences, emphasising
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Power by Proxy: Participation as a Resource in Global Governance Rev. Int. Organ. (IF 4.5) Pub Date : 2025-02-04 Sabrina B. Arias, Richard Clark, Ayse Kaya
Member state participation is essential in global governance, affording international organizations (IOs) legitimacy and translating member state preferences into institutional attention. We contend that institutional leadership positions bolster states’ authority via “proxy representation,” in which states are grouped together and indirectly represented by one leader. We argue that by serving as proxy
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Locking in democracy? Transitions, returning autocratic elites, and human rights treaty commitment Rev. Int. Organ. (IF 4.5) Pub Date : 2025-02-04 Roman-Gabriel Olar
Under what conditions are new democracies more committed to human rights? Existing explanations focus on the logic of the democratic lock-in as elites in new democracies commit their countries to international human rights treaties and organizations to safeguard against future nondemocratic threats. However, this proposition receives mixed empirical support within the literature, and suffers of endogeneity
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“Peacekeeping Proneness”: Which Type of International System Is Most Likely to Enhance the Supply of Peacekeepers? International Studies Quarterly (IF 2.4) Pub Date : 2025-02-03 Philip Cunliffe
s The Russian invasion of Ukraine has escalated geopolitical rivalry and debate about the demise of the liberal international order and the changing distribution of power within the international system. Peacekeeping has been a key component of the liberal international order at least since the end of the Cold War, if not before. Peacekeeping boomed in the era of US unipolarity, with twenty new United
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Entangled Narratives: Insights from Social and Computer Sciences on National Artificial Intelligence Infrastructures International Studies Quarterly (IF 2.4) Pub Date : 2025-02-03 J P Singh, Amarda Shehu, Manpriya Dua, Caroline Wesson
How do countries narrate their values and priorities in artificial intelligence infrastructures in comparative national and global contexts? This paper analyzes the policies governing national and regional artificial intelligence infrastructures to advance an understanding of “entangled narratives” in global affairs. It does so by utilizing artificial intelligence techniques that assist with generalizability
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Challenging Popular Narratives: The Course of Power Transition and Sino–US Relations The Chinese Journal of International Politics (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2025-01-31 Xiaolin Duan
Despite intensive scholarly interest in power transition theory (PTT) and its relevance to contemporary Sino–US relations, this article addresses three aspects central to policy discussions that have been largely neglected or taken for granted in the existing scholarly works on PTT. This article first establishes an analytical framework to analyse the course of power transition, enabling an in-depth
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Fratricidal Coercion in Modern War International Organization (IF 8.2) Pub Date : 2025-01-30 Jason Lyall, Yuri Zhukov
Armies sometimes use fratricidal coercion—violence and intimidation against their own troops—to force reluctant soldiers to fight. How this practice affects battlefield performance remains an open question. We study fratricidal coercion using a mixed-methods strategy, drawing on (1) monthly panel data on Soviet Rifle Divisions in World War II, built from millions of declassified personnel files; (2)
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Conflict relocation and blood diamond policy shifts Journal of Peace Research (IF 3.4) Pub Date : 2025-01-30 Andrew Saab
There is substantial evidence that various aspects of violent civil conflict are tied to natural resources, of which diamonds are perhaps the most notorious. While the presence of resources themselves have been given substantial attention, existing works have overlooked a key issue: substitute resources. This article focuses on the geographic distribution of violent conflict relative to natural resource
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Disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration in peace agreements (1975–2021): Introducing the DDR dataset Journal of Peace Research (IF 3.4) Pub Date : 2025-01-30 Julia Palik, Mauricio Rivera Celestino, David Gomez-Triana, Nicholas Marsh, Ida R?dningen
Disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) provisions in peace agreements (PAs) are critical pillars of global peacebuilding efforts. Leading theories suggest that different DDR components address different peacebuilding challenges. Yet existing datasets conceptualize DDR as a binary variable, hindering our ability to observe which DDR components and in what combination are agreed upon by
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Recovering from economic coercion: Does the pain stop when sanctions end? Journal of Peace Research (IF 3.4) Pub Date : 2025-01-30 Susan Hannah Allen, Clayton McLaughlin Webb
Sanctions episodes, like those imposed by the United States against Cuba and North Korea, can persist for decades. What are the consequences of lifting sanctions? Do the harmful consequences of economic sanctions outlast the sanctions? How do target states adjust after these coercive policies end? A growing literature identifies a range of adverse effects of economic sanctions for targeted states including
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Nationality Questions and War: How Ethnic Configurations Affect Conflict Within and Between States Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 2.2) Pub Date : 2025-01-29 Lars-Erik Cederman, Yannick I. Pengl, Dennis Atzenhofer, Luc Girardin
It is generally accepted that violations of state-nation congruence can cause conflict, but it remains unclear which configurations cause civil and interstate conflict, and how these conflict types interact. Inspired by Myron Weiner’s classical model of the “Macedonian Syndrome,” we propose an integrated theoretical framework that links specific nationality questions to both conflict types. Using spatial
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Does Peacekeeping Mitigate the Impact of Aid on Conflict? Peacekeeping, Humanitarian Aid and Violence Against Civilians Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 2.2) Pub Date : 2025-01-24 Shenghao Zhang, Han Dorussen
Peacekeeping has been found to be effective in containing conflict and civilian victimization, while the findings for the effect of aid on violence are indeterminate. So far the effects of peacekeeping and aid on violence have mainly been studied separately, this article investigates, at the subnational level, the effect of humanitarian aid on one-sided violence conditional on the deployment of peacekeeping
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Legacies of Past and Present Violence: Evidence From Mosul, Iraq Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 2.2) Pub Date : 2025-01-23 Sam Whitt, Vera Mironova, Douglas Page
Scholars are increasingly drawing attention to the societal consequences of conflict-related violence. What remains unclear is the interplay between short-term and long-term legacies of wartime traumas. We consider the case of Mosul, Iraq, a setting in which inhabitants have experienced wide-ranging victimization during both recent and historical contexts. In a 2022 survey, we inquired across a broad
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When the Hegemon Seeks Ontological Security: US Narratives on Rising Threats and the Future of the International Order The Chinese Journal of International Politics (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2025-01-22 Beyza ?a?atay Tekin, R?fat Bar?? Tekin
This article examines strategic narratives in the United States’ 2022 National Security Strategy (NSS) through the lens of ontological security theory. The analysis suggests that the US is challenged in its ontological security by the current state of the international order and the rapid evolution of the global economy into an unfamiliar entity, largely as a result of the destabilising actions of
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Less is more: Property rights and dictators’ demand for foreign direct investment Rev. Int. Organ. (IF 4.5) Pub Date : 2025-01-20 Jacque Gao, Frederick R. Chen
Past studies in political economy have established a link between domestic property rights protection and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. However, the underlying mechanism remains unclear, given that foreign investors often enjoy more robust property rights protection through international arbitration under investment treaties or potential intervention by their home governments. In this article
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Tailoring the message: A new dataset on the dyadic nature of NGO shaming in the media Journal of Peace Research (IF 3.4) Pub Date : 2025-01-20 Robert Brathwaite, Shanshan Lian, Amanda Murdie, Baekkwan Park
In the last decade, international relations scholarship on shaming by non-governmental organizations has grown dramatically, providing us with many insights into how country-level improvement occurs in the areas of human rights and the environment, among other issues. Using machine learning techniques, this project built an updated dataset on NGO shaming from almost 1.5 million articles in the media
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Who Reviews Whom, Where, and Why? Evidence from the Peer Review Process of the OECD Development Assistance Committee International Studies Quarterly (IF 2.4) Pub Date : 2025-01-13 Alice Iannantuoni, Simone Dietrich, Bernhard Reinsberg
The study of international organizations’ (IOs) peer review systems has focused largely on their efficacy in disseminating best practices, with mixed results. This paper informs the debate from a new angle: We evaluate the extent to which decisions about who reviews whom and where result from bureaucratic guidelines, or whether these decisions are shaped by the particularistic interests of member states
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Nuclear Shibboleths: The Logics and Future of Nuclear Nonuse International Organization (IF 8.2) Pub Date : 2025-01-10 Stacie E. Goddard, Colleen Larkin
Thomas Schelling argued that “The most spectacular event of the past half century is one that did not occur. We have enjoyed sixty years without nuclear weapons exploded in anger.” To this, he added a question: “Can we make it through another half dozen decades?” Contemporary technological innovation, weapons proliferation, increased modernization efforts, and nuclear saber-rattling have made Schelling's
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Weapons of the Weak: Technological Change, Guerrilla Firepower, and Counterinsurgency Outcomes Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 2.2) Pub Date : 2025-01-10 Costantino Pischedda, Mauro Gilli, Andrea Gilli
What explains counterinsurgency outcomes? Existing scholarship points to characteristics and strategies of incumbents and insurgents but neglects the role of insurgents’ weapons. Some studies discuss the effects of the firepower of insurgents relative to incumbents. Focusing on relative firepower, however, is problematic given the asymmetric nature of guerrilla warfare, with insurgents eschewing decisive
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Six Alternatives to War, One Solution for Peace: The Pacifying Effect of Civil Society The Chinese Journal of International Politics (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2025-01-09 Seung-Whan Choi, Patrick James
Although civil society has significant implications for international peace, it has been overlooked and not given enough attention. Instead, existing studies focus on other factors that contribute to peace. In this study, we compare five prominent peace factors, namely, democratic peace, Cold War peace, contractualist peace, capitalist peace, and territorial peace, to a robust civil society. Our research
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International organizations in national parliamentary debates Rev. Int. Organ. (IF 4.5) Pub Date : 2025-01-06 Tom Hunter, Stefanie Walter
This data article introduces IOParlspeech, an original dataset of over 600,000 statements on international organizations (IOs) in parliamentary debates in six countries between 1990 and 2018. We explain the creation of the dataset and demonstrate the value of IOParlspeech through two exploratory studies. First, we examine which actors convey more positive and more negative sentiment regarding IOs in
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Decision-making in the United Nations General Assembly: A comprehensive database of resolution-related decisions Rev. Int. Organ. (IF 4.5) Pub Date : 2025-01-06 Joshua Fjelstul, Simon Hug, Christopher Kilby
Existing United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) voting databases provide excellent coverage of UNGA voting on resolutions adopted by roll-call vote. These databases, however, have known limitations: The United Nations Digital Library only covers final decisions on adopted resolutions, not prior resolution-related decisions nor decisions on failed resolutions. Coverage of roll-call votes in the widely-used
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Peace Negotiations and Civilian Targeting Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 2.2) Pub Date : 2025-01-06 Ipek Ece Sener
Does the participation of armed actors in peace talks influence their strategy of targeting civilians? I argue that before peace talks belligerents have incentives to demonstrate their military strength and respect for humanitarian standards to international third parties. Thus, they are more likely to spare civilians and discriminately target enemy combatants before international talks. Using change
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Can States Be Interviewed? International Studies Quarterly (IF 2.4) Pub Date : 2025-01-03 Tadek Markiewicz
s While states are not human beings, they are institutionalized social groups. It is humans who constitute and run them. Consequently, it is argued that countries can be interviewed. This claim is based on in-depth interviews with seventy Israeli and British officials, which “captured” states’ anxiety. In ontological security studies, countries’ anxieties are typically inferred from historical and
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Are domestic war crimes trials biased? Journal of Peace Research (IF 3.4) Pub Date : 2024-12-31 Ivor Sokoli?, Denisa Kostovicova, Lanabi La Lova, Sanja Vico
Fairness of domestic war crimes trials matters for promoting justice and peace. Scholars have studied public perceptions of war crimes trials to assess their fairness, but little is known about whether post-conflict states conduct them fairly. Bias, as a matter of procedural fairness, can manifest as a tendency to favour certain groups over others. Leveraging the theories of judicial decisionmaking
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Identity concessions in ethnic civil wars: When are they given and with what outcomes for peace? Journal of Peace Research (IF 3.4) Pub Date : 2024-12-31 Lesley-Ann Daniels
Creating a stable peace is now the key puzzle to resolve in ending civil wars. To date, research has focused on ‘hard’ political and military reforms included in peace agreements, and the impact of ‘soft’ concessions such as language rights, cultural rights or the right to religion have been largely ignored. When do states give these concessions and do they make a difference to peace outcomes? The
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Rewarding loyalty: Selective reassurance and enforcement of asymmetric alliances Journal of Peace Research (IF 3.4) Pub Date : 2024-12-31 Yasuki Kudo
Great powers frequently signal their alliance commitments during peacetime. While scholars see this peacetime practice as an integral part of great powers’ alliance maintenance, there is significant variation in the intensity of signals that junior allies receive. This article suggests that the choices made by great powers in signalling alliance commitments can be explained by the motivation to encourage
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Dynamics of organized violence in the wake of tropical cyclones Journal of Peace Research (IF 3.4) Pub Date : 2024-12-31 Elizabeth J Tennant, Elisabeth A Gilmore
Recent research highlights how the same vulnerabilities that lead to disasters also condition the impact of hazards on violent conflict. Yet it is common practice in the literature to proxy rapid-onset hazards with disaster impacts when studying political violence. This can bias upward estimates of hazard–conflict relationships and obscure heterogeneous effects, with implications for forecasting as
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The Design of Autocratic Trade Agreements: Economic Integration and Political Survival International Studies Quarterly (IF 2.4) Pub Date : 2024-12-28 Evgeny Postnikov, Jonas Gamso
s The number of preferential trade agreements signed among non-democratic states (autocratic PTAs) has grown significantly over the last decades. Trade policy scholarship remains silent on the institutional design of these autocratic economic arrangements. In this paper, we explore the core institutional characteristic of autocratic PTAs—their depth. It has been shown that many North–South and, increasingly
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Moving the Needle: Recommendation Precision and Compliance with Women’s Rights Recommendations International Studies Quarterly (IF 2.4) Pub Date : 2024-12-28 Jillienne Haglund, Courtney Hillebrecht
s International human rights institutions impose obligations on their member states that extend long past the ratification stage. Each year, states receive tens, or even hundreds, of recommendations from international human rights bodies. These recommendations demand that states change their human rights policies and practices. While recent scholarship has emphasized the important role of domestic
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Crises and Negotiations in Mutual Interventions Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 2.2) Pub Date : 2024-12-23 Allard Duursma, Henning Tamm
Why do states that simultaneously support rebel groups in each other’s intrastate conflicts enter negotiations to resolve such mutual interventions? This is an important question, as negotiations between interveners typically lead to negotiated settlements, which in turn tend to make their intrastate conflicts far less deadly. We argue that international crises make negotiations more likely. Crises
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Dovish Hawks: How Leaders’ Combat Experience Influences the End of Civil Conflicts in Peace Agreements Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 2.2) Pub Date : 2024-12-23 Juliana Tappe Ortiz
Who are the leaders who end civil wars through peace agreements? I theorize that the prior combat experience of a state leader is an important life experience with direct relevance for how leaders evaluate conflict outcomes. Combat experience increases sensitivity to human losses and gives the state leader a hawkish reputation, increasing internal support, boosting their risk-tolerance, and convincing
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Institutional innovation in response to backlash: How members are circumventing the WTO impasse Rev. Int. Organ. (IF 4.5) Pub Date : 2024-12-20 Krzysztof Pelc
In response to the impasse caused by the US blockade of the World Trade Organization’s dispute settlement body, 52 Member-states have converged on a innovative workaround: the Multi-Party Interim Appeal Arbitration Arrangement (MPIA). This article asks two questions related to this singular, yet overlooked initiative in global governance: first, what determines who joins a novel enforcement mechanism
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Building from the Brain: Advancing the Study of Threat Perception in International Relations International Organization (IF 8.2) Pub Date : 2024-12-20 Marika Landau-Wells
“Threat perception” is frequently invoked as a causal variable in theories of international relations and foreign policy decision making. Yet haphazard conceptualization and untested psychological assumptions leave its effects poorly understood. In this article, I propose a unified solution to these two related problems: taking the brain into account. I first show that this approach solves the conceptualization
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Ideology and Legitimacy in Global Governance International Organization (IF 8.2) Pub Date : 2024-12-20 Matthias Ecker-Ehrhardt, Lisa Dellmuth, Jonas Tallberg
While many scholars expect people's ideological orientations to drive their beliefs regarding the legitimacy of international organizations (IOs), research has found surprisingly limited support for this common assumption. In this article we resolve this puzzle by introducing the perceived ideological profile of IOs as a critical factor shaping the relationship between ideological orientation and such
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Does Public Opinion on Foreign Policy Affect Elite Preferences? Evidence from the 2022 US Sanctions against Russia International Studies Quarterly (IF 2.4) Pub Date : 2024-12-20 Anton Peez, Felix S Bethke
Does public opinion on international affairs affect elites’ policy preferences? Most research assumes that it does, but this key assumption is difficult to test empirically given limited research access to elite decision-makers. We examine elite responsiveness to public opinion on sanctioning Russia during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. We fielded a preregistered experiment within the 2022 TRIP
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Internal conflicts and shocks: A narrative meta-analysis Journal of Peace Research (IF 3.4) Pub Date : 2024-12-18 Camille Laville, Pierre Mandon
Do variations in local incomes influence peace and conflict in low- and middle-income countries? The present meta-regression analysis contributes to answering this question by delving into the narratives that researchers use to qualify how various shocks affect conflict risk through channels implicitly linked to income. After examining 2,464 subnational estimates from 64 recent empirical studies, we
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Extreme weather and contentious elections Journal of Peace Research (IF 3.4) Pub Date : 2024-12-18 Sarah Birch
The impact of extreme weather events on electoral processes is not well understood, yet as the climate changes, such events are predicted to become more common. This highlights the need for scholars to investigate how natural hazards affect election campaigns and electoral administration. Drawing on data from the Electoral Contention and Violence dataset, this article uses a difference-in-differences
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The role of subgroup leaders in combatant socialization and resocialization: The British re-education program for German POWs (1946–1948) Journal of Peace Research (IF 3.4) Pub Date : 2024-12-18 Sam A Erkiletian
What explains the variation in combatant socialization and resocialization outcomes? Why do some combatants adopt the intended norms of their organization while others resist them? Combatants regularly undergo intensive socialization and ‘resocialization’ processes within total institutions – regimented environments like armed organizations and re-education programs that seek to alter their norms.
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The Effect of International Actors on Public Support for Government Spending Decisions International Studies Quarterly (IF 2.4) Pub Date : 2024-12-17 Pablo M Pinto, Stephanie J Rickard, James Raymond Vreeland
Does the intervention of an international organization in domestic politics render policy change more popular? While voters may ultimately care only about policy outcomes, the involvement of international actors often seems to lead to resentment. Still, citizens may have greater faith in the wisdom of international actors than in their own government. As others have argued, a well-respected international
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Insuring the Weak: The Institutional Power Equilibrium in International Organizations International Studies Quarterly (IF 2.4) Pub Date : 2024-12-12 Benjamin Da?ler, Tim Heinkelmann-Wild, Martijn Huysmans
Materially powerful states tend to dominate both the creation of international organizations (IOs) as well as subsequent IO policymaking. Materially weak states are nevertheless expected to participate in IOs since it is generally assumed that they will still profit from cooperation and prefer power to be exercised through institutions. Yet, we know surprisingly little about how exactly institutional
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Mere Puffery or Convincing Claims? Rebel News and Civilian Perceptions of the Balance of Power International Studies Quarterly (IF 2.4) Pub Date : 2024-12-12 Caleb Lucas
How does rebel news affect the way civilians perceive the balance of power during conflict? While media campaigns are a common tactic during conflict for both insurgents and governments, there is very little empirical research that explores their effect on civilians. I argue that these campaigns play an important role in the construction of a rebel group’s reputation during conflict and the perception
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Nonresident Prime Ministers? Measuring India’s Foreign Policy Orientation via Leadership Travel International Studies Quarterly (IF 2.4) Pub Date : 2024-12-12 Sumitha Narayanan?Kutty, Walter C Ladwig?III
As a rising India has sought both standing and recognition in the international system, observers have debated whether revisionist or status quo tendencies have characterized the country’s engagement with the outside world since the end of the Cold War. One way to gain insight into such issues is to study the behavior of its apex leaders. Face-to-face diplomacy and high-level visits are an increasingly
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IMF Lending Programs and Repression in Autocracies International Studies Quarterly (IF 2.4) Pub Date : 2024-12-10 Stephen C Nelson, Christopher P Dinkel
Do International Monetary Fund (IMF) lending programs increase repression in borrowing countries? We argue that repression worsens when autocratic governments enter conditional lending arrangements with the IMF. Autocracies are likelier than democracies to harshly crackdown during episodes of heightened protest and unrest triggered by IMF-mandated adjustment and structural reform programs. But harsh
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Power Grabs from the Top: A Database of Self-Coups International Studies Quarterly (IF 2.4) Pub Date : 2024-12-10 Arthur A Goldsmith
This research note introduces new global data on self-coups—rapid moves by sitting executive leaders to “overthrow” their own governments and illegitimately maintain or extend power. Self-coups are distinct from ordinary coups (sudden illegal attempts by other elites to topple the sitting executive) and overlap with incumbent takeovers (incremental quasi-legal steps by the sitting executive to amass
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Replicating the Resource Curse: A Qualitative Replication of Ross 2004 International Studies Quarterly (IF 2.4) Pub Date : 2024-12-10 Megan Becker, Jonathan Markowitz, Sarah Orsborn, Isabelle Nazha, Srividya Dasaraju, Lindsay Lauder
What are the causal pathways through which natural resources are linked to civil conflict? Ross evaluates ten causal pathways across thirteen conflicts to offer the most comprehensive answer to date. However, nearly 20 years later, all thirteen conflicts have ended, and more sources are available, motivating the question: Would the findings hold if replicated today? We employ a new explicit standards
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When Generalized Trust Matters? Impact of Industrial Tertiarization on Trade Preference Formation International Studies Quarterly (IF 2.4) Pub Date : 2024-12-10 Masafumi Fujita
Generalized trust has attracted attention as a non-material disposition that affects risk perception in political and economic international cooperation. However, its effect on public support for free trade or trade agreements has been debated. This debate centers on whether the economic impacts of trade are evident or uncertain to ordinary citizens because generalized trust operates only when trade
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Why settle?: Partisan-based explanation of investor-state dispute outcomes Rev. Int. Organ. (IF 4.5) Pub Date : 2024-12-09 Haillie Na-Kyung Lee, Jong Hyun Lee
This paper seeks to explain why some investor-state dispute cases are settled before reaching the ruling stage in democracies, focusing on disputes triggered by regulatory changes made by host government. Our argument is grounded in the domestic politics of the respondent country, specifically the partisan orientation of the incumbent government. When faced with regulatory investor claims, respondent
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The Law Behind Dispute Onset: How Legal Uncertainty Drives Maritime Boundary Disputes Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 2.2) Pub Date : 2024-12-06 Umut Yüksel
The making of international law through multilateral conventions and adjudication often leads to periods of legal uncertainty, times in which there are alternative rules and divergent views on how they ought to be applied to particular cases. I argue that legal uncertainty gives states opportunities and incentives to formulate excessive unilateral claims, thus making disputes more likely to arise.
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Voter Intimidation as a Tool of Mobilization or Demobilization? Evidence from West Bengal, India Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 2.2) Pub Date : 2024-12-04 Ursula Daxecker, Annekatrin Deglow, Hanne Fjelde
This study presents new theory and evidence on the repertoire of electoral intimidation, suggesting that threats can be used to deter rival party supporters from voting but also to mobilize citizens to vote for a particular party. We expect these strategies to unfold in the same electoral context, but differ in targeting and incidence; while threats to demobilize are concentrated in closely contested
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Commitment ambiguity and ambition in climate pledges Rev. Int. Organ. (IF 4.5) Pub Date : 2024-12-03 Vegard T?rstad, Vegard Wiborg
The Paris Agreement on climate change is built around a pledge-and-review system, wherein countries submit nationally determined pledges of mitigation commitments. While the agreement’s flexible design has attracted broad participation, its lenient informational requirements for pledges have also engendered considerable ambiguity in countries’ commitments. What are the implications of commitment ambiguity
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The Power of Cabinet Appointments in Autocracies: Elite Cooptation and Anti-Regime Mass Uprisings Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 2.2) Pub Date : 2024-12-02 Berker Kavasoglu
Why are some autocratic regimes more prone to mass uprisings than others? This article argues that autocratic leaders can mitigate opposition mobilization by strategically appointing opposition leaders to cabinet positions. Drawing on yearly data from autocracies between 1966 and 2020, the article exploits temporal variations in the composition of cabinets and the onset of mass uprisings within autocratic
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Whom to Repress: Tall Poppies, Key Players, and Weakest Links Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 2.2) Pub Date : 2024-11-30 Kris De Jaegher
This paper presents a game-theoretic model where dissidents with heterogeneous abilities and motivations contribute to collective action. A regime demotivates dissidents by preemptively increasing their costs of contributing, using a budget that can be spread across them in any way desired. The regime’s optimal targeting strategy is shown to depend on the (technological) degree of complementarity between
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Environmental displacement and political instability: Evidence from Africa Journal of Peace Research (IF 3.4) Pub Date : 2024-11-25 Angela Chesler
Does environmental displacement provoke political instability? Though migration has long been considered an intermediary in the causal path between environmental change and political upheaval, the relationship remains theoretically underdeveloped and evidence has been limited. This article examines the impact of displacement caused by sudden-onset natural hazards on disruptive antigovernment events
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Words to unite nations: The complete United Nations General Debate Corpus, 1946–present Journal of Peace Research (IF 3.4) Pub Date : 2024-11-25 Slava Jankin, Alexander Baturo, Niheer Dasandi
Every year since 1946, the General Debate has taken place at the beginning of the United Nations (UN) General Assembly session. Representatives from all UN member states deliver an address, discussing the issues that they consider most important in global politics, revealing their governments’ positions, and seeking to persuade other states of their perspectives. The annual UN General Debate statements
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The Role of Pan-African Ideology in Ethnic Power Sharing International Organization (IF 8.2) Pub Date : 2024-11-22 Janina Beiser-McGrath, Sam Erkiletian, Nils W. Metternich
What are the conditions under which governments form more ethnically inclusive coalitions? Previous contributions highlight strategic incentives as well as colonial and precolonial legacies as determinants of ethnically inclusive government coalitions but overlook the impact of political mobilization during the decolonization period. We argue that ideological exposure and commitment to the Pan-African